Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.
Real evidence is usually vague and unsatisfactory. It has to be examined – sifted.
Circumstantial evidence is a very tricky thing. It may seem to point very straight to one thing, but if you shift your own point of view a little, you may find it pointing in an equally uncompromising manner to something entirely different.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.